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Effect Analysis of Climate Change on the Reproduction of Mosquitoes and Infection Rate Sensitivity for SI/SIR Epidemical Model in the Case of Malaria Disease

Emma Marie INGABIRE and Masaomi KIMURA
Dept. Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Shibaura Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
Abstract—The purpose of this study is to improve the current methodology SI/SIR by introducing the sensitivity of infection rate to climate change variables such as temperature and humidity to reproduce infection by anophelines gambaie. The improvement provides a satisfactory model, where the number of mosquitoes is controlled by the time and seasons, which change the malaria reaction. Rwanda weather facilitates the lodgment of these vectors where the variation of temperature is ranged between 10 and 29°C and humidity is in the range of 30% – 97%. With climate change, distress the change into the number of mosquitoes is complex to change, this makes the reaction of the infection rate to respond proportionally to the change of mosquito and it is effective for the population at risk of malaria to respond to this change, especially in some season where the infection rate can be more than 0.2. Furthermore, analysis and comparison are made, where the infection rate as a time-dependent variable, demonstrate a significant result where the explanation of the result has the meaning of the climate change variables. The result provided by the new model proves the importance of the focus mostly on infection rate sensitivity.

Index Terms—climate change, variables, seasonal, humidity, temperature, approach, mosquito, anopheline gambaie, malaria disease, population, human, SI/SIR model, infection rate, sensitivity

Cite:Emma Marie INGABIRE and Masaomi KIMURA, "Effect Analysis of Climate Change on the Reproduction of Mosquitoes and Infection Rate Sensitivity for SI/SIR Epidemical Model in the Case of Malaria Disease," International Journal of Pharma Medicine and Biological Sciences, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 47-51, January 2020. doi: 10.18178/ijpmbs.9.1.47-51

Copyright © 2020 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided that the article is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

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